Quantitative divination methods review Typology of forecasts Qualitative forecasting methods
Brainstorming Prediction markets Estimate talk number (Group communication) Delphi Structured analogy Game theory Role playacting Conjoint analysis
prognosticate and decision making process
Club of capital of Italys Forecast. The Limits to Growth. 1972 National Intelligence Council. Global archs 2025. A transform World.
Summary
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Forecasting Definitions
Forecasting is the process of estimation in uncharted situations A forecast is a prediction based on knowledge of past behavior Requirements for a forecast
Validity disagreement Valuation of probability
Good forecasting is based on science, art, and luck
Forecasting is both a science and an art
Science
forecasting equations statistics/regression analysis
Art
undecomposed at guessing (judgmental forecasting) honourable at picking the localise type of forecasting equation
We forecast phenomena and processes which we are unable to control
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Forecasting Basic Steps
The forecast
Time Series Models
Extrapolation of historical selective information into the future Plotted on graph and analysed for four raw material comp 1nts of variation
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Step 6 Monitor the forecast Step 5 Prepare the forecast Step 4 Gather and fail data Step 3 Select a forecasting technique Step 2 Establish a clock horizon Step 1 Determine purpose of forecast
Trend - long-term movement in data Seasonality - short-term habitue variations in data Cycle wavelike variations of more than one years duration Irregular variations - caused by uncommon circumstances Random variations - caused by chance Simple heavy amount, median, mode Simple moving average, double moving average Exponential smoothing Linear regression Multiplicative model
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Examples
Used where good historical data is available
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